Super El Nino’s & Special Military Operations
17 September 2026
In Australia, the BOM has called for a severe El Nino for much of this growing season with Pacific Ocean measurements expected to reach record levels over the spring and early summer. However, much of southern Australia has experienced above average rainfall. On the international front, multiple “Special Military Operations” have impacted Black Sea grain logistics as well as the flow of energy and fertiliser out of the Straight of Hormuz and now the Straight of Bab el-Mandeb. The most recent ABARES Crop Report shows both having an impact on Australian farmers this season.
Super El Ninos
Napolean Bonaparte reportedly said that “he preferred lucky generals over good ones”. The statement implied he would rather be lucky than good in battle.
After spending much of the season discussing the potential impact of the super El Nino – rainfall has outperformed expectations in some areas. Victoria and South Australia have busked the forecasts to achieve a rainfall surplus. Unfortunately, Queensland and much of northern New South Wales have endured the anticipated rainfall deficit. Western Australia is also in rainfall deficit for much of the Great Southern.
The growing season isn’t finished, and we are looking for good luck to continue into harvest.
Special Military Operations
The war in Ukraine has continued for four and a half years, with heavy casualties on both sides, particularly Russia. In recent months, attacks have increasingly targeted energy, food and agricultural infrastructure, making the Black Sea highly volatile and unsafe and almost halting maritime grain transport. According to Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry, Russian attacks on Odesa and Izmail have destroyed silos, warehouses, port facilities and vessels, disrupting at least half of Ukraine’s grain exports. Ukraine retaliated in late August and early September with heavy drone strikes on the key Russian port of Novorossiysk, hitting grain-loading terminals and storage silos and closing the port. On the 26th of July, the merchant vessel Golden Leo was targeted and sank while carrying a cargo of corn taking the lives of 10 sailors as reported by maritime news.
Global grain markets have rallied in response to the decline in Black Sea ag exports as vessel owners are unwilling to risk sailing there. However, Turkey and Egypt are spearheading international discussions for a safe grain corridor similar to the one established in 2022 at the outset of hostilities.
Similarly, the conflict in Iran continues with both sides looking to seize control of the two straights in the region. Shipping through the Hormuz straight accounted for 20% of global natural gas, 25% of seaborne oil and 30% of global fertiliser. The decline in transits has impacted growers with higher diesel and fertiliser prices this year.
ABARES September update
We can see the impact of both the weather and conflicts in the most recent ABARES outlook. More expensive inputs have contributed to total Australian wheat area decreasing by 8%, barley acreage was increased by 6%, canola up 2% and pulses largely unchanged. The poor weather outlook this year has contributed to a decline in planted winter crops in Queensland of 24% and 19% in New South Wales respectively. ABARES did note marginal increases in area planted to winter crops this season for Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
Grain Markets Summary
Global grain prices have improved over the last eight weeks as a result of the Black Sea escalations. This is most visible in wheat and canola pricing. Barley pricing remains subdued as the market waits to see what size import program China will take on over the coming months. Better than expected rainfall in the south has weighed on their local pricing while Queensland markets have increased on the decreased seeding and poor weather.
Increased global demand for safe Australian logistics and a strong meat and livestock industry on the east coast will ensure pricing remains positive in the near term. People need food and animals do to!
With harvest quickly creeping up, and pricing volatility expected to continue into the foreseeable future, the structured grain sales programs offered by Advantage Grain gives you access to expert grain marketers keeping an eye on the market movements daily, giving you back your time to get on with farming. For more information on our stress free grain marketing services, go to
www.advantagegrain.com.au.
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