Global grain values tread water as weather threats subside
Chris Nikolaou, 18 June 2025
Over the last four weeks, we have seen much needed rain in the southeast of Australia which will help freshly sown crops to germinate. While this rain was well received, more favourable rainfall is needed and unfortunately, the Aussie weather outlook continues to push the best forecasts further out.
Globally, weather models had predicted ongoing dryness in both the US and Russia but this has not eventuated the way it was forecast.
These local and global weather influences are keeping grain values treading water and leaving the market poised for reaction.
Aussie rainfall
Over the last four weeks QLD and northern NSW have continued to receive quality amounts of rainfall. Many growers we speak with in these areas are pleased with the early season rainfall. However, the same cannot be said for southern growers. SA and VIC have both been struggling with long term drought affects. Since the start of the year southern NSW has also suffered from a deficit of rainfall. At the end of May/start of June the pattern changed for the southeast with all three states receiving rainfall. This will go a long way to getting sown crops started. However, much more is needed to return the southeast of the country to a ‘normal season’. Consequently, local basis levels declined with the improving outlook. If we do not see solid follow up rain or an overall change in the weather patterns, one would expect the market to start pricing in weather concerns in July. Currently, the outlook for June is for sub-average rainfall for many parts of Australia.
Northern Hemisphere seasons on the mend after a very poor start
Going into the northern hemisphere spring, both the US and Russia were under drought in much of their wheat growing areas. However, in late April the weather patterns for both producers changed. Widespread rainfall throughout the US mended key growing areas in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Their harvest is starting up now and the expectation is for large crops.
Russia also has experienced a rebound in weather after suffering through drought for much of 2024. However, the last 90 days rainfall anomaly shows that not all areas have experienced this good fortune.
The Rostov region of Russia continues to be declared under drought emergency and excessive spring frosts. The USDA report last week estimated total Russian wheat production at 84 million metric tonne. However, many private analysts are lower than this.
Australian and global outlook
Locally, the BOM continues to push the best weather pattern shifts further out. They now present that the balance of June will be dryer than average for much of the country. July forward should see the best chances of overall weather improvement. Producers in the states of South Australia and Victoria have had a challenging 12 months and we hope things continue to improve.
Overall, local grain markets have seen short term local spikes in pricing based on dry conditions in the southeast. This has mostly been seen in feed barley for sheep. Global markets have been subdued with improving wheat growing weather. However, this could change at any moment with a down turn in US summer crop conditions.
Local and global market volatility can be difficult to follow, and harder to sell your grain into. This is why having Advantage Grain in your corner to watch the markets, and make informed decisions about grain sales, can draw out real benefits in your grain marketing strategy each year.
For more information on Advantage Grain and our low-risk sales programs, call the team today on 1300 245 586.
Share This Article
Other articles you may like
